An inquiry into potential tampering with temperature sensors at the Paris airport to influence online betting outcomes has brought attention to the increasing popularity of climate-related bets. Several accounts on Polymarket, an online betting platform, reaped substantial winnings when temperature readings surged by 5 degrees Celsius in a single day earlier this month. This incident has sparked discussions on the ethics of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which enable users to bet on climate-related events such as hurricane intensity and record-breaking temperatures in 2026.
Experts interviewed by CBC News suggest that weather betting could have a positive impact on climate science by potentially changing the views of climate change skeptics. Moran Cerf, a neuroscience and business professor at Columbia University, conducted a study where participants bet on various climate events like the California wildfires. The study revealed that individuals who engaged in these markets became more attentive and concerned about climate change, even leading some skeptics to reconsider their stance.
Despite the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters, skepticism towards climate change persists. A poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute in January 2025 found that nearly a quarter of Canadians do not believe humans are primarily responsible for climate change, with an additional nine percent questioning the existence of climate change altogether.
Cerf emphasized that climate change poses challenges for human cognition, as some impacts like rising sea levels and disruptions to food systems may not be immediately apparent. However, prediction markets offer a unique solution by providing real-time feedback and short-term impacts through betting on climate events. By engaging in these markets, individuals are compelled to confront the consequences of their predictions, potentially altering their perspectives on climate issues.
In a separate initiative, Mark Roulston, a climate scientist at the University of Lancaster, has developed a project that invites university research teams to participate in climate prediction markets. These markets operate similarly to Polymarket and Kalshi but do not involve actual monetary gambling by the research teams. Instead, teams submit predictions on significant climate events, allowing for more accurate predictions and incentivizing further model development.
Roulston envisions the potential expansion of prediction markets to inform crucial decisions, such as estimating sea level rise or guiding infrastructure projects based on market outcomes. These markets could serve as a valuable tool for aggregating expertise and producing timely forecasts, bypassing the lengthy review process typical of traditional research publications.
In Canada, Wealthsimple has received approval to offer certain types of prediction markets, including contracts on economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. While short-term binary options are prohibited in Canada, Wealthsimple’s approval excludes bets on sports and elections.
However, some researchers express concerns about the rise of climate-related betting, particularly the focus on short-term bets that may not effectively educate individuals about climate change. Cerf warns that data tampering incidents, like the one in Paris, undermine the credibility of these platforms in raising awareness about climate issues.
