The Canadian curling trials, a significant event leading to the Winter Olympics, will kick off this weekend in Halifax. The competition will feature eight top men’s and women’s teams vying for the opportunity to represent Canada in the four-player curling events in northern Italy this February. The mixed doubles entry was already determined when Jocelyn Peterman and Brett Gallant secured an Olympic spot for Canada by finishing sixth at the world championships last season.
The men’s and women’s trials will commence on Saturday at the same venue with a round robin format where all teams will compete against each other. The team with the best record will advance directly to the final, while the second- and third-place teams will face off in a semifinal to determine the finalist to challenge the top seed.
Unlike past trials, the final will be a best-of-three series rather than a single game. The finals for both men’s and women’s events will take place next Friday and Saturday, with potential rubber matches on Sunday if needed.
The successful team from the trials will aim to restore Canada’s reputation in Olympic curling, which has waned since the country’s last gold medals in 2014. The recent performances have seen Canada earn only one medal, a bronze in 2022, despite having star-studded lineups in both men’s and women’s events. Additionally, Canada’s mixed doubles record has been inconsistent, with a gold in 2018 but a failure to make the playoffs in 2022.
To predict the potential winners of the trials, Shoreview Sports Analytics utilized the Bradley-Terry model to assess each team’s strength based on recent performances and simulated the trials 10,000 times to determine the probabilities for each team’s finishing position.
In the women’s tournament, Rachel Homan’s team emerges as a strong favorite, given their exceptional track record and dominance in global and domestic competitions. Homan’s team has a 91% chance of winning the trials, with other contenders like Kerri Einarson and Kaitlyn Lawes having much lower odds.
In contrast, the men’s event appears more open, with Brad Jacobs and Matt Dunstone considered top contenders. Jacobs, a former Olympic gold medalist, and Dunstone, despite not winning a Brier title, have shown consistent performance on the tour. The Shoreview model predicts a range of outcomes for the men’s tournament with the potential for an exciting and unpredictable final showdown.
