Local security experts are concerned that the U.S. attack on Venezuela has impacted guerrilla groups operating along the Venezuela-Colombia border, potentially leading to betrayal by Venezuelan officials and escalating conflict if U.S. troops intervene. Since the Jan. 3 attacks, reports have emerged of increased guerrilla movements on both sides of the border. The National Liberation Army (ELN), the region’s dominant guerrilla group, has allegedly shut down camps in Venezuela due to fears of regime officials disclosing their locations to the U.S. authorities.
Jorge Mantilla, an expert in armed conflicts and national security from Bogotá, mentioned that the ELN is adjusting its security measures and social control systems in Venezuelan communities where their leaders are present. The group has halted training operations and the formation of a special forces unit in Venezuela with assistance from the Venezuelan military.
Mantilla revealed that the ELN had foreseen a potential U.S. attack in Venezuela, as indicated by previous warnings and statements made by the group’s negotiators. The ELN’s long-term goal of becoming a continental guerrilla force may be realized if the U.S. military establishes a presence in Venezuela or if the Venezuelan regime fractures into factions.
The leader of a rival guerrilla group, Ivan Mordisco, called for unity among guerrilla groups and the Venezuelan military to resist the U.S. However, Gerson Arias from Colombia’s Ideas for Peace Foundation expressed skepticism about Mordisco’s credibility, citing his criminal status and lack of trust among potential allies.
The ELN, estimated to have 6,000 to 8,000 members and controlling vast border territories, is unlikely to engage in peace talks with Mordisco’s faction. The group operates in southern Venezuelan states, relying on illicit activities like mining and drug trafficking for revenue. The ELN has historical ties with the Venezuelan regime, sharing a common political ideology and supporting Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution.
Colombia’s Interior Minister Armando Benedetti disclosed that U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro agreed to collaborate against the ELN. Meanwhile, human rights advocate Eliana Paola Zafra emphasized the need for comprehensive peace-building efforts in Latin America to protect communities and human rights.
