It is a daily ritual for millions of Australians, but if you have noticed the price of your morning flat white or soy latte increase, brace yourself — it is likely to get worse.

By the end of the year, coffee lovers will be paying up to $7 for a regular cup as cafes nationwide struggle to absorb growing overhead costs warned David Parnham, president of the Café Owners and Baristas Association of Australia.

“What’s happening globally is there are shortages obviously from catastrophes that are happening in places like Brazil with frosts, and certain growing conditions in some of the coffee growing areas,” Mr Parnham said.

“The cost of shipping has become just ridiculous.”

Key points:

  • Prepare to be paying up to $7 a cup by the end of the year
  • Shipping costs and natural disasters in coffee regions are being blamed for the price increase
  • Australians consume one billion cups of coffee annually, but cafe owners say an increase in price won’t change that

It’s nearly five times the container prices of two years ago due to global shortages of containers and ships to be able to take things around the world.

Frosts in Brazil have impacted supply.(Supplied: Melbourne Coffee Merchants)

The pain will be felt from the cities to the outback, but Mr Parnham said the increase was well overdue, with the average $4 price for a standard latte, cappuccino and flat white remaining stable for years.

“The reality is it should be $6-7. It’s just that cafés are holding back on passing that pricing on per cup to the consumer,” he said.

But roaster Raoul Hauri said it hadn’t made a dent in sales, with more than 300 customers still coming through the doors for their daily fix. “No one really batted an eyelid,” he said. “We thought we would get more pushback, but I think at the moment people understand.

“It is overdue and unfortunately it can’t be sustained, and at some point the consumer has to bear that.”

Paving the way for Australian producers

While coffee drinkers will be feeling the pinch, Australian producers like Candy MacLaughlin from Skybury Roasters hopes the increasing cost of imports will pave the way for growth in the local industry, allowing it to compete in the market.

“[In the ] overall cost of business, we haven’t been able to drop our prices to be competitive, so we’ve really worked on that niche base,” Ms MacLaughlin said.

“All those things will help us to grow our coffee plantation once more.”

Candy and her husband Marion produce 40 tonnes of coffee annually but they are prepared to scale up operations(Supplied)

She said the industry could eventually emulate the gin industry, with boutique operations cropping up across the country.

“I think the demand for Australian coffee at the moment is an ever-changing landscape and more and more Aussies are starting to question where their food comes from, who is growing it”

“What you will get is all these kinds of niche coffee plantations who develop a very unique flavour profile and then market in funky packaging and appeal to certain markets,” she said.

“That’s where I see the next stage of the Australian coffee industry going.”

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Google has illegal monopoly in online ad tech, U.S. judge rules

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Google has been branded a monopolist by a federal judge for the second time in less than a year, this time for illegally exploiting some of its online advertising technology to boost profits, fuelling an internet empire currently worth $1.8 trillion US. 

U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Va., ruled that Google unlawfully monopolized markets for publisher ad servers and the market for ad exchanges, which sit between buyers and sellers. Antitrust enforcers failed to show the company had a monopoly in advertiser networks, she wrote.

“For over a decade, Google has tied its publisher ad server and ad exchange together through contractual policies and technological integration, which enabled the company to establish and protect its monopoly power in these two markets.” Brinkema wrote. “Google further entrenched its monopoly power by imposing anticompetitive policies on its customers and eliminating desirable product features.”

The ruling comes on the heels of a separate decision in August 2024 that concluded Google’s namesake search engine has been illegally leveraging its dominance to stifle competition and innovation.

Although antitrust regulators prevailed both times, the battle is likely to continue for several more years as Google tries to overturn the two monopoly decisions in appeals while forging ahead in the new and highly lucrative technological frontier of artificial intelligence. 

The next step in the latest case is a penalty phase that will likely begin late this year or early next year. 

In a statement, Google said it will appeal the ruling. 

“We disagree with the court’s decision regarding our publisher tools,” said Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s vice-president of regulatory affairs. “Publishers have many options and they choose Google because our ad tech tools are simple, affordable and effective.”

Bipartisan concerns

After the U.S. Justice Department targeted Google’s ubiquitous search engine during President Donald Trump’s first administration, the same agency went after the company’s lucrative digital advertising network in 2023, when Joe Biden was president, in an attempt to undercut the power that Google has amassed since its inception in a Silicon Valley garage in 1998.

Brinkema’s 115-page decision centres on the marketing machine that Google has spent the past 17 years building around its search engine and other widely used products and services, including its Chrome browser, YouTube video site and digital maps. 

The system was largely built around a series of acquisitions that started with Google’s $3.2 billion purchase of online ad specialist DoubleClick in 2008. U.S. regulators approved the deals at the time before realizing that they had given the Mountain View, Calif., company a platform to manipulate the prices in an ecosystem that a wide range of websites depend on for revenue and provides a vital marketing connection to consumers. 

The Justice Department lawyers argued that Google built and maintained dominant market positions in a technology trifecta used by website publishers to sell ad space on their webpages, as well as the technology that advertisers use to get their ads in front of consumers, and the ad exchanges that conduct automated auctions in fractions of a second to match buyer and seller. 

As it did in the search monopoly case, Google and its corporate parent Alphabet vehemently denied the Justice Department’s allegations. Their lawyers argued the government largely based its case on an antiquated concept of a market that existed a decade ago while underestimating a highly competitive market for advertising spending that includes the likes of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft and Comcast. 

The market as drawn in the Justice Department’s case didn’t include ads that appear on mobile apps, streaming television services, or other platforms to which internet users have increasingly migrated, prompting Google lawyer Karen Dunn to compare the government’s definition a “time capsule with a BlackBerry, an iPod and a Blockbuster video card” during her opening statement when the trial began last September. 

Google back in court next week

At trial, the Justice Department’s lawyers emphasized the harm to news publishers that has arisen from Google’s alleged dominance of the marketplace. 

Witnesses from Gannett, the publisher of USA Today and other newspapers, and News Corp., the publisher of the Wall Street Journal, testified about the difficulties they have faced and what they said was a lack of alternatives to Google’s ad tech. Those companies rely on online advertising to fund their news operations and make their articles free to consumers on the internet, government lawyers have argued. 

Now, the government is in position to try to dismantle that byzantine ad system. When the case was filed more than two years ago during the Biden administration, the Justice Department asserted Google should be forced to sell, at a minimum, its Ad Manager product, which includes the technology used by website publishers and the ad exchange.

Meanwhile, so-called “remedy” hearings in the search monopoly case are scheduled to begin Monday in Washington D.C., where Justice Department lawyers will try to convince U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta to impose a sweeping punishment that includes a proposed requirement for Google to sell its Chrome web browser.

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