U.S. President Donald Trump, praised for his role in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages, is now shifting focus to the conflict he vowed to resolve on his first day back in office: Russia’s war with Ukraine. Trump is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House following his recent positive discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy is drawing parallels between Trump’s success in the Middle East and the potential for peace in Europe, emphasizing the importance of maintaining momentum for peace efforts.
However, experts caution that ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be a more complex challenge compared to the Israel-Hamas war. Charles Kupchan from the Council on Foreign Relations highlights the significant differences between the two conflicts, noting the limited leverage the U.S. holds over Russia compared to its relationship with Israel. Western sanctions have not yielded substantial leverage due to Russia’s ties with China and India.
Maria Snegovaya from the Center for Strategic and International Studies underscores the difficulty Trump faces in achieving a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict without significant measures. Trump’s proposal to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles as a deterrent has been met with mixed reactions. While the missiles could enhance Ukraine’s strike capability, they may not be a definitive solution to compel Russia to agree to a peace deal.
Snegovaya emphasizes that substantial economic pressure on Russia is necessary to prompt concessions from Putin, who tends to halt conflicts when facing economic challenges. Kupchan suggests that the presence of Tomahawks could impact Putin’s calculus on the war’s costs but may not be a decisive factor. Trump’s approach, including his offer of Tomahawks, could inadvertently signal to Putin that prolonging the conflict is advantageous.
Despite the contrasting dynamics between the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, Trump remains optimistic about his ability to facilitate peace. He expressed confidence in his diplomatic skills during a recent event, indicating his determination to bring Putin and Zelenskyy to a settlement. Trump plans to meet Putin again in Hungary shortly, aiming to make progress on the longstanding conflict.
