The agreement between the United States and Russia that restricted their strategic nuclear weapons deployment has lapsed, raising uncertainty over the intentions of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The end of the New START treaty marks the absence of a formal agreement for the first time in over 50 years, allowing the two nations to expand their nuclear arsenals freely.
While opinions vary on whether the treaty’s expiration will trigger a new arms race, experts generally agree that the deal requires substantial revisions to address current nuclear dynamics, particularly China’s growing weapons program. However, the prospect of Trump, Putin, and China’s President Xi Jinping swiftly reaching a consensus on an updated agreement seems optimistic at best.
Former U.S. diplomat Thomas Countryman, who previously served in arms control and international security, expressed concerns about the heightened risk of nuclear weapon use following the treaty’s termination. Under the now-defunct treaty, the U.S. and Russia were limited to 1,550 nuclear warheads each, with restrictions on intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Despite Russian President Putin’s previous suggestion to renew the treaty before his meeting with Trump in Alaska, the proposal never materialized. Trump has downplayed the significance of the treaty’s expiration, advocating for a new and improved agreement that aligns with current nuclear realities. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the necessity of involving China in future arms control efforts.
A Pentagon report revealed China’s plans to increase its nuclear warheads to over 1,000 by 2030, highlighting the challenges posed by the country’s nuclear expansion. Analysts caution that abandoning the U.S.-Russia treaty could hinder efforts to constrain China’s nuclear capabilities in the long run.
Efforts are underway to maintain the treaty’s weapon limits through an informal agreement between the U.S. and Russia. Despite these developments, uncertainties persist regarding the post-treaty era and its implications for global strategic stability. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that the treaty’s expiration was discussed in a recent call between Putin and Xi, emphasizing Russia’s commitment to nuclear stability and national interests.
