As Washington intensifies negotiations with Ukraine and Russia and President Trump remains hopeful about an imminent peace agreement, significant disagreements persist between Kyiv and Moscow. The control of disputed regions in Eastern Ukraine and the issue of security assurances remain contentious points without consensus.
Kyiv insists on robust security guarantees in the event of a peace deal to deter potential Russian aggression and secure military support from allies. Ukraine seeks binding security assurances beyond mere promises from its partners.
The Budapest Memorandum, a non-binding agreement from 1994, failed to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent involvement in the Donbas conflict. While Ukraine aims for NATO membership, the lack of unanimity within the alliance compels Kyiv to pursue U.S.-backed security commitments.
Discussions involve potentially offering Ukraine security guarantees modeled after NATO’s Article 5, triggering collective defense in case of an attack on a member state. President Trump raised this concept during a meeting with President Putin, suggesting a framework akin to Article 5 as a concession.
The leaked 28-point peace plan, endorsed by Moscow and Washington, hints at providing Ukraine with reliable security assurances involving U.S. participation. A counterproposal emphasizes a U.S. security guarantee resembling Article 5 protection.
The prospect of placing foreign troops in Ukraine post-ceasefire faces opposition from Russia, prompting considerations of deploying peacekeepers in neighboring countries. While some allies, including Canada, express readiness to send troops, the presence of NATO forces in Eastern Ukraine remains a contentious issue.
U.S. involvement may focus on offering surveillance equipment and support from NATO territories in case of significant developments. The Kremlin’s influence over the terms and locations of a reassurance force must be challenged by Ukraine’s allies.
Russia’s motives for launching military operations in 2022 included preventing Ukraine’s NATO accession. Despite Russia’s reluctance to disclose its preferred security guarantees, it emphasizes maintaining its strategic objectives without concessions.
Despite the ongoing challenges, the current negotiations mark a significant step towards resolving the conflict since Russia’s invasion in 2022. Direct negotiations, rather than shuttle diplomacy, offer hope for substantial progress in addressing the core issues between Ukraine and Russia.
Further talks are anticipated between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, with Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll returning to Ukraine and special envoy Witkoff scheduled for Moscow discussions. President Trump has indicated his willingness to meet with Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin once a finalized agreement is within reach.
