A recent analysis conducted by the Center for European Policy Analysis has indicated that Russia and China are advancing faster than NATO countries, including Canada, in the development and deployment of drones suitable for harsh Arctic environments.
The study, unveiled this week, highlighted deficiencies in infrastructure, raised concerns about inadequate investments, and identified procurement challenges that impede the incorporation of unmanned systems into Western armed forces.
The report, co-authored by research fellow Federico Borsari and retired U.S. Major-General Gordon (Skip) Davis, who previously held the position of NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for defense investment, emphasized the fragmented and slow procurement of Arctic-capable drones within NATO. Most allies prioritize systems designed for moderate climates and later adapt them for Arctic conditions, resulting in a limited number of NATO-certified Arctic-ready platforms.
According to the report, Russia and China are enhancing their unmanned capabilities and defensive measures while expanding their presence in the Arctic to exploit surveillance and security gaps.
Russia is significantly investing in unmanned and robotic systems across all domains, partly driven by developments in the Ukraine conflict. The study noted a surge in annual drone production, with predictions of a substantial increase in Russian unmanned systems in the coming years. The Russian Navy recently established a drone control center in Kamchatka to oversee the development of unmanned systems for maritime patrols and anti-submarine warfare.
Likewise, China has prioritized the development of remote-sensing technologies, polar-shipping capabilities, unmanned systems, and communication networks in the Arctic. Recent reports from Chinese media highlighted the successful testing of a new unmanned aerial vehicle named Jiutian, capable of launching multiple smaller drones mid-flight.
Currently, Canada lacks drones suitable for Arctic surveillance. The Canadian Air Force is in the process of procuring 11 MQ-9B Reaper drones from General Atomics, with the initial delivery expected in 2028 and full operational capability by 2033. The delay in delivery was attributed to modifications required for Arctic operations and additional testing to ensure functionality in harsh winter conditions.
Transport Canada recently acquired an Israeli-made Hermes 900 Starliner drone for Arctic surveillance, but deployment plans remain uncertain as core aviation services are being integrated with the Defense Department.
The CEPA report emphasized the urgent need for Canada and the United States to address the drone gap in the northern regions. The report highlighted the aging radar networks of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the vulnerability of the Arctic approach to new threats amidst heightened global competition.
Although the study did not specifically mention any Arctic allied nation, it suggested that the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO presents an opportunity to establish a unified front in the northern region.
The report stressed the importance of developing specialized equipment for Arctic operations, such as cold-rated batteries, thermal management systems, and prepositioning spare parts to sustain high sortie rates in extreme weather conditions throughout Arctic bases. Additionally, NATO was urged to prioritize addressing the surveillance gap in the Arctic and develop a dedicated strategic framework for the region to enhance resource allocation and cooperation among regional allies.
