A recent peer-reviewed study highlights heavy rainfall as a significant threat to cocoa production, contrary to the common focus on heat and drought. The study, led by Anna Lea Albright, an environmental fellow at Harvard University, emphasized the adverse impact of excessive rain on cocoa cultivation.
The surge in cocoa prices in recent years, with a tonne now priced around $6,000 US, has been felt by consumers globally. Events like heavy flooding in West Africa, the largest cocoa-growing region, have contributed to price spikes, reaching over $12,000 US in 2024.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges faced by farmers due to excessive rainfall disrupting harvest activities. The study, focusing on Ghana as the second-largest cocoa producer, identified extreme rainfall during flowering as a significant factor limiting cocoa yields. The research also highlighted the correlation between heavy rain and fungal infections, impacting cocoa production in countries like Ecuador and Indonesia.
Climate change exacerbates these challenges, with warmer air holding more moisture and intensifying heavy rain events during the wet season. While El Niño may reduce the risk of extreme rain in West Africa, it raises the likelihood of drought, further complicating cocoa farming.
Apart from climatic factors, non-climactic risks such as aging trees and illegal mining pose additional threats to cocoa production. The study suggests interventions like fungicide use and improved drainage to mitigate fungal diseases spread by heavy rain.
Infrastructure investments, better post-harvest practices, and centralized processing facilities are proposed solutions to alleviate the impact of extreme rainfall on cocoa farming. Experts warn that these climate shocks may drive smallholder farmers out of the industry, potentially leading chocolate producers to explore cocoa-free alternatives like ChoViva, a sunflower seed-based chocolate developed by Nestlé in partnership with a German startup.
The study underscores the urgency for sustainable solutions to safeguard cocoa production in the face of changing climate patterns.
