The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen further until 2027 and could potentially become the most powerful on record, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned in a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any observed since monitoring began four decades ago.
The World Meteorological Organization stated that their projections indicate a nearly 100% chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027 due to unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, marking the first time such a high level of certainty has been expressed. A robust El Niño has the capacity to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather occurrences such as typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated, “El Niño is undergoing significant intensification right before our eyes. The scientific evidence is unequivocal: our planet is entering uncharted territory, and these unexplored waters are warming up.”
El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific resulting from weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, causing severe rainfall and droughts across Latin America. This year’s El Niño has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO forecasted that El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of this year but its effects will extend into 2027, leaving behind elevated global temperatures in the following year. Saulo noted that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of these developments.
Saulo emphasized, “WMO is dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the necessary climate intelligence and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.”
