The Alberta government has set an ambitious timeline for the potential construction of a new West Coast oil pipeline, but CIBC World Markets analysts caution that many hurdles remain. The province aims to present a proposal to the federal major projects office by July 1, secure national interest designation by Oct. 1, and commence construction as early as Sept. 1, 2027. Oil flow could potentially begin around 2033 or 2034, according to a provincial official.
Analysts Robert Catellier and Rogan Anantharajah described the timelines as optimistic and best-case scenarios. The Alberta government revealed these targets following the finalization of an agreement with Ottawa on increasing the market carbon price to $130 per tonne by 2040.
The remaining essential agreement involves the province, federal government, and the Oil Sands Alliance on funding the Pathways carbon capture project, a prerequisite for the pipeline. The Alberta government leads the pipeline application, as no private sector entity has yet stepped forward to bear the risk and cost. Despite this, top pipeline executives are advising on technical aspects, such as routing options.
The pipeline’s objective is to transport up to one million barrels of oilsands crude daily to the West Coast, significantly expanding access to Asian markets compared to the current capacity of the Trans Mountain pipeline. The province favors a northern port option for its shorter distance to Asia.
Challenges such as negotiations with British Columbia, consultations with Indigenous groups, and the ban on oil tanker loading along the northern B.C. coast remain unresolved. Notably, B.C. Premier David Eby and other stakeholders have expressed strong opposition to any relaxation of the tanker ban.
ATB Financial’s chief economist, Mark Parsons, views the clarified construction timelines as positive and believes they will push for timely completion. ATB projects that Pathways and enhanced pipeline capacity could boost Canada’s real GDP by 1.1% and Alberta’s by 5.1% between 2027 and 2035 if implemented.
