In the early hours of Wednesday, telescopes worldwide will aim to capture a unique event: an aging rocket crashing into the illuminated side of the moon. This rocket is the second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 that carried two lunar landers, Firefly Blue Ghost-1 from the U.S. and ispace Hakuto-R Resilience from Japan, launched in January 2025.
Independent astronomer Bill Gray, who tracked the rocket’s trajectory since launch, predicted a close encounter with the moon on August 5, 2026. Accounting for the gravitational influences of the Earth, moon, and sun, Gray realized it would not be a near miss but a direct impact.
The collision is expected to occur on the moon’s daylight side, near its limb. This is not the first instance of human-made objects impacting the lunar surface, as seen with Apollo upper stages and intentional impacts for various research purposes.
Astronomers are eager to observe this event, expecting the rocket’s impact to eject a substantial amount of debris into space. The impact is estimated to propel over one million kilograms of material upward before most of it settles back on the moon.
The upcoming impact offers valuable insights into the risks posed by artificial impacts as space exploration advances. Understanding the hazards posed by such events is crucial with the growing interest in lunar missions.
Astronomers and amateur stargazers are encouraged to observe either the plume or flash resulting from the impact. Capturing this brief event may shed light on the potential risks and consequences associated with such impacts on future lunar missions.
As astronomers gear up for this unique observation, the impact’s significance lies in the data it can provide about the potential hazards and risks posed by artificial impacts on the moon. Tracking such events is vital as humanity’s exploration of space progresses.
